Prediction Market Accuracy
How reliable are prediction market forecasts?
Why Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets aggregate information from thousands of traders who put real money behind their forecasts. Academic research consistently shows they outperform polls, expert panels, and statistical models for event forecasting.
0
Resolved Markets Tracked
85-95%
Typical Calibration Accuracy
0
Categories Analyzed
Where Markets Excel
- +Elections and political events (aggregating poll + non-poll signals)
- +Economic indicators (Fed decisions, GDP, inflation)
- +High-profile events with lots of public information
- +Near-term events (1-3 months out)
Known Limitations
- -Low-liquidity markets (few traders = less reliable)
- -Very long-term predictions (2+ years out)
- -Markets susceptible to manipulation (small volume)
- -Black swan events (inherently hard to predict)
Resolved Markets by Category
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