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Markets/Weather/Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
WeatherACTIVE

Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Price History

Outcomes (7 markets)

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers?

Yes52.0%
No48.0%
$353 24h

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.4m & 14.6m square kilometers?

Yes11.2%
No88.8%
$254 24h

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.8m & 15m square kilometers?

Yes14.1%
No85.9%
$126 24h

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be at least 15m square kilometers?

Yes1.5%
No98.5%
$112 24h

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.6m & 14.8m square kilometers?

Yes0.8%
No99.3%
$91 24h

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be <14m square kilometers?

Yes5.7%
No94.3%
$0 24h

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14m & 14.2m square kilometers?

Yes7.5%
No92.5%
$0 24h

Market Stats

Total Volume
$17.1K
24h Volume
$937
Liquidity
$8.5K
End Date
4/1/2026
Comments
2

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Tags

WeatherclimateClimate Change