Biggest Polymarket Bets — Live
The largest directional positions whales hold right now and the biggest new bets of the past seven days, valued at current prices from the holder data we snapshot hourly across Polymarket's highest-volume markets. Updated ~every 15 minutes (last build 2026-09-05 04:20 UTC).
Largest open position
$1.3M
TheReturnOfDarthMaul · YES · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Biggest new bet this week
$1.3M
TheReturnOfDarthMaul · YES · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Money at risk, top 20 positions
$10.2M
would pay $14.3M if every one won
Largest open positions right now
by dollars at risk · latest holder snapshotBiggest new bets — last 7 days
new positions detected · first seenHow to read this page
- At risk = shares × current price: what the position is worth today and roughly what the trader loses if wrong.
- Pays if right = shares × $1, the redemption value if the outcome hits. The gap between the two is the trader's potential profit.
- Filtered out: positions priced at 95¢ or higher (parked capital) and identical-size positions across every outcome of an event (complete sets / market-making). One row per wallet per market.
- Coverage: the highest-volume Polymarket markets, whose top holders we snapshot hourly. Smaller markets are not included. "SMS" is our Smart Money Score for the wallet.
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Frequently asked questions
Who has the biggest bet on Polymarket right now?
In our latest holder snapshot the largest open directional position is TheReturnOfDarthMaul's YES position on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" — about $1.3M at risk at 51¢, paying roughly $2.5M if it wins. The table above updates every 15 minutes, so this changes.
What is the biggest bet ever placed on Polymarket?
The most widely reported is the pseudonymous French trader known as "Théo", who The Wall Street Journal reported in late 2024 had staked more than $30 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 election across several accounts — a position that paid out when Trump won. The tables on this page track today's largest open positions rather than historical records.
Are the amounts in dollars?
Polymarket positions are counted in shares, and each winning share redeems for $1. "At risk" is shares × the current price — roughly what the position is worth today. "Pays if right" is the full redemption value (shares × $1). A 12-million-share YES position at 9¢ is about $1.1M at risk and pays about $12M if it wins.
Why don't I see the huge 99¢ positions?
We deliberately filter out positions priced at 95¢ or more and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event. Those are parked capital, market-making or complete sets — near-riskless holdings, not directional bets — and they would otherwise dominate every ranking.
Should I copy these bets?
No page can tell you that. Whales lose too, and a large position can be a hedge against something you can't see. Use this as a map of where conviction money sits, check the market's volume and rules, and remember trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.
More live data
Positions are derived from public Polymarket holder data and valued at current market prices; wallet names are the traders' own public handles. Shown for information only — not a recommendation to trade. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction. We may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this site.