Biggest Polymarket Bets — Live

The largest directional positions whales hold right now and the biggest new bets of the past seven days, valued at current prices from the holder data we snapshot hourly across Polymarket's highest-volume markets. Updated ~every 15 minutes (last build 2026-09-05 04:20 UTC).

Largest open position

$1.3M

TheReturnOfDarthMaul · YES · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Biggest new bet this week

$1.3M

TheReturnOfDarthMaul · YES · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Money at risk, top 20 positions

$10.2M

would pay $14.3M if every one won

Largest open positions right now

by dollars at risk · latest holder snapshot
#TraderBetPriceAt riskPays if rightWhen
1TheReturnOfDarthMaulSMS 25YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$1.3M$2.5M19m ago
2VelvetNova27NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$900.2K$1.1M19m ago
3TahitiBobNOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$884.3K$1.0M19m ago
48934394839SMS 24NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$772.1K$903.0K19m ago
5KatsuManager87NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$691.9K$809.3K19m ago
6ArmageddonRewardsBillySMS 25YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$691.8K$1.4M19m ago
7TheReturnOfDarthMaulSMS 25YESWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?93.2¢$552.9K$593.5K19m ago
8nojnnSMS 26NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$515.3K$602.7K19m ago
9321cbaSMS 10NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$487.9K$570.6K19m ago
10blahblah344NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$467.5K$546.8K19m ago
11EamonnD1812NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$440.7K$515.4K19m ago
1265765757SMS 21NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$336.9K$394.0K19m ago
13denizzSMS 17NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$316.8K$370.5K19m ago
14ThePrinceThatWasPromisedYESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$285.3K$564.9K19m ago
150xa5ef...2966SMS 50NOWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?54.0¢$283.2K$524.4K19m ago
16TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengardYESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$276.1K$546.8K19m ago
17foodenjoyerSMS 24YESFed rate hike in 2026?71.5¢$273.1K$381.9K19m ago
18ratehikesYESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$246.9K$489.0K19m ago
19fed26SMS 26YESWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?93.2¢$244.6K$262.6K19m ago
20rdbaSMS 24NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$213.8K$250.0K19m ago

Biggest new bets — last 7 days

new positions detected · first seen
#TraderBetPriceAt riskPays if rightWhen
1TheReturnOfDarthMaulSMS 25YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$1.3M$2.5M19m ago
2VelvetNova27NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$900.2K$1.1M19m ago
3TahitiBobNOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$884.3K$1.0M19m ago
48934394839SMS 24NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$772.1K$903.0K19m ago
5KatsuManager87NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$691.9K$809.3K19m ago
6ArmageddonRewardsBillySMS 25YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$691.8K$1.4M19m ago
7TheReturnOfDarthMaulSMS 25YESWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?93.2¢$552.9K$593.5K19m ago
8nojnnSMS 26NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$515.3K$602.7K19m ago
9321cbaSMS 10NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$487.9K$570.6K19m ago
10blahblah344NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$467.5K$546.8K19m ago
11EamonnD1812NOClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85.5¢$440.7K$515.4K19m ago
1265765757SMS 21NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$336.9K$394.0K19m ago
13denizzSMS 17NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$316.8K$370.5K19m ago
14ThePrinceThatWasPromisedYESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$285.3K$564.9K19m ago
150xa5ef...2966SMS 50NOWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?54.0¢$283.2K$524.4K19m ago
16TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengardYESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$276.1K$546.8K19m ago
17foodenjoyerSMS 24YESFed rate hike in 2026?71.5¢$273.1K$381.9K19m ago
18ratehikesYESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?50.5¢$246.9K$489.0K19m ago
19fed26SMS 26YESWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?93.2¢$244.6K$262.6K19m ago
20rdbaSMS 24NOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85.5¢$213.8K$250.0K19m ago

How to read this page

  • At risk = shares × current price: what the position is worth today and roughly what the trader loses if wrong.
  • Pays if right = shares × $1, the redemption value if the outcome hits. The gap between the two is the trader's potential profit.
  • Filtered out: positions priced at 95¢ or higher (parked capital) and identical-size positions across every outcome of an event (complete sets / market-making). One row per wallet per market.
  • Coverage: the highest-volume Polymarket markets, whose top holders we snapshot hourly. Smaller markets are not included. "SMS" is our Smart Money Score for the wallet.

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Frequently asked questions

Who has the biggest bet on Polymarket right now?

In our latest holder snapshot the largest open directional position is TheReturnOfDarthMaul's YES position on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" — about $1.3M at risk at 51¢, paying roughly $2.5M if it wins. The table above updates every 15 minutes, so this changes.

What is the biggest bet ever placed on Polymarket?

The most widely reported is the pseudonymous French trader known as "Théo", who The Wall Street Journal reported in late 2024 had staked more than $30 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 election across several accounts — a position that paid out when Trump won. The tables on this page track today's largest open positions rather than historical records.

Are the amounts in dollars?

Polymarket positions are counted in shares, and each winning share redeems for $1. "At risk" is shares × the current price — roughly what the position is worth today. "Pays if right" is the full redemption value (shares × $1). A 12-million-share YES position at 9¢ is about $1.1M at risk and pays about $12M if it wins.

Why don't I see the huge 99¢ positions?

We deliberately filter out positions priced at 95¢ or more and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event. Those are parked capital, market-making or complete sets — near-riskless holdings, not directional bets — and they would otherwise dominate every ranking.

Should I copy these bets?

No page can tell you that. Whales lose too, and a large position can be a hedge against something you can't see. Use this as a map of where conviction money sits, check the market's volume and rules, and remember trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Positions are derived from public Polymarket holder data and valued at current market prices; wallet names are the traders' own public handles. Shown for information only — not a recommendation to trade. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction. We may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this site.