2026 Midterm Election Odds — Live Tracker
Real-money prediction-market odds for control of Congress and every major 2026 race, from Polymarket data we refresh continuously. Election Day: November 3, 2026. Page updated ~every 15 minutes (last build 2026-10-20 23:18 UTC).
Every tracked 2026 race
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Frequently asked questions
What do these 2026 midterm odds mean?
Each percentage is the live price of that outcome on Polymarket's prediction markets — the probability real-money traders collectively assign right now. A 65% price means the market prices roughly a 65% chance. Odds update continuously; this page refreshes about every 15 minutes.
Are prediction markets accurate for elections?
Research on prediction markets has generally found them competitive with — and often faster-moving than — polling averages, because traders put money behind new information immediately. They are not infallible: markets have mispriced races before, and thin markets move on small volume.
When do the 2026 midterm markets resolve?
Election Day is November 3, 2026. The control-of-Congress markets on this page list that as their end date, resolving once results are certified per each market's resolution rules.
Where does this data come from?
From Polymarket's public market data, which we ingest and refresh continuously. We show mid prices for the leading outcome, 24-hour and 7-day movement, and trading volume so you can judge how liquid each signal is.
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Odds are Polymarket market prices (leading outcome of each event's highest-volume market), shown for information only — not a prediction, endorsement or advice. Markets can be thin; check volume before treating a price as a strong signal. Availability of trading depends on your jurisdiction (US residents: see the separate, CFTC-regulated Polymarket US product). We may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this site.