Fed Rate Odds — Live Tracker
What real-money traders on Polymarket expect from the Federal Reserve: cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 meeting, how many cuts this year, and where the fed funds rate finishes December. $70.5M traded across these markets. Updated ~every 15 minutes (last build 2026-09-05 04:20 UTC).
Next FOMC decision — Sep 16
1%
Cut
49%
Hold
51%
Hike
$9.4M traded in 24h · hold -5.0 pts 7d
Most likely number of cuts in 2026
No cuts
93% probability
+5.2 pts 7d
Rate hike in 2026?
72%
chance of a hike this year · emergency cut before 2027: 3%
+4.0 pts 7d
| FOMC meeting | Cut 50+ | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 | Hike 50+ | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 — Fed Decision in September? | <1% | <1% | 49% | 51% | <1% | $9.4M |
| Oct 28 — Fed Decision in October? | <1% | 4% | 68% | 28% | <1% | $127.5K |
| Dec 9 — Fed Decision in December? | 1% | 5% | 45% | 44% | 2% | $49.7K |
Each column is that outcome's Polymarket "Yes" price; bold = 40% or more.
Remaining 2026 FOMC meetings — chance of a cut by each
Cumulative: each row counts every earlier chance to cut as well.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Probability of each total for the calendar year.
Fed funds rate at the end of 2026 (upper bound)
Most likely: 4.00% at 41%.
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Frequently asked questions
When is the next Fed meeting?
The FOMC's remaining scheduled 2026 meetings conclude on September 16, October 28 and December 9, with the rate decision published at 2:00 p.m. ET on the final day. The odds on this page refresh continuously as each date approaches.
What do cut, hold and hike mean on this page?
Each FOMC meeting has separate Polymarket markets for the size of the move: a cut of 25 bps or 50+ bps, no change (hold), or a hike of 25 bps or 50+ bps. We show each market's Yes price; the Cut and Hike headline numbers add the two sizes together.
What does 'rate cut by the September meeting' mean?
It is a cumulative market: it pays out if the Fed has cut at least once at or before that meeting. That is why the probability rises for later meetings — each later date includes every earlier chance to cut.
How do these odds compare with CME FedWatch?
FedWatch infers probabilities from fed funds futures prices; Polymarket odds come from an order book where traders stake real money on the outcome directly. Both react to the same inflation, jobs and Fed-communication news and usually land close together, but they are different mechanisms and can diverge when a market is thin.
Can I trade these markets from the United States?
Polymarket's main platform is not available to US residents. Polymarket offers a separate CFTC-regulated US product for event contracts in eligible states; availability depends on your jurisdiction. This page is informational only.
More live data
Probabilities are Polymarket "Yes" prices on each market, shown for information only — not a forecast, endorsement or advice. Markets can be thin; the volume figure above indicates how much money stands behind them. Meeting dates follow the Federal Reserve's published 2026 calendar. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction. We may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this site.