Markets/Economics/How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

NEWPolymarket Perps are live — trade indices, crypto and equities with leverage

Perpetual futures, hourly funding, up to per-market max leverage. How Perps work

Try Perps
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
EconomicsACTIVE

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Price History

Outcomes (6 markets)

Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Yes28.5%
No71.5%
$3.0K 24h

Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Yes22.0%
No78.0%
$2.2K 24h

Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Yes0.8%
No99.2%
$1.1K 24h

Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Yes0.8%
No99.3%
$952 24h

Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Yes4.8%
No95.2%
$445 24h

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

Yes45.0%
No55.0%
$346 24h

Market Stats

Total Volume
$286.5K
24h Volume
$8.0K
Liquidity
$57.0K
Open Interest
$47.2K
End Date
12/31/2026
Comments
0

Top Holders

PRO

No holder data yet

Tags

FedRatefomcKevin WarshGlobal RatesJerome Powellfederal reserveCPI Release