Markets/Politics/Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

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Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
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Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Price History

Outcomes (31 markets)

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 31, 2026?

Yes0.0%
No100.0%
$37.4K 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$37.4K 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 30, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$37.0K 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$34.6K 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 27, 2026?

Yes0.0%
No100.0%
$958 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 29, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$808 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 25, 2026?

Yes4.0%
No96.0%
$395 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 26, 2026?

Yes46.9%
No53.1%
$339 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026?

Yes0.0%
No100.0%
$133 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 19, 2026?

Yes3.1%
No96.9%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 17, 2026?

Yes0.0%
No100.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 20, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 12, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 7, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 3, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 9, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 22, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 16, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 21, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 11, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 14, 2026?

Yes0.0%
No100.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 13, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 8, 2026?

Yes0.0%
No100.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?

Yes0.0%
No100.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 28, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 18, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 10, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 2, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 23, 2026?

Yes100.0%
No0.0%
$0 24h

Market Stats

Total Volume
$223.6K
24h Volume
$148.9K
Liquidity
$253
Open Interest
$2.8K
End Date
11/1/2026
Comments
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Tags

OilIranHormuztankerMilitaryGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz