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Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for September: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Price History
Outcomes (40 markets)
Will West Virginia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Delaware have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Ohio have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Texas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Pennsylvania have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Maryland have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Washington have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Kansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Utah have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Missouri have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Arizona have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Oregon have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Nebraska have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will New Mexico have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Nevada have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Florida have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Idaho have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Illinois have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Alabama have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Iowa have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Montana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Tennessee have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will California have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will South Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Indiana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Kentucky have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Louisiana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Minnesota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will New Jersey have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will North Dakota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will South Dakota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Virginia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Wyoming have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will North Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Will Georgia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
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