Markets/Science & Tech/Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Science & TechACTIVE

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Price History

Outcomes (14 markets)

Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes0.9%
No99.2%
$1.6K 24h

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes9.5%
No90.5%
$1.2K 24h

Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes7.5%
No92.5%
$1.2K 24h

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes27.5%
No72.5%
$191 24h

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes27.5%
No72.5%
$56 24h

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes12.5%
No87.5%
$11 24h

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes5.5%
No94.5%
$0 24h

Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes4.5%
No95.5%
$0 24h

Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes3.3%
No96.8%
$0 24h

Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes10.5%
No89.5%
$0 24h

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes6.5%
No93.5%
$0 24h

Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes2.5%
No97.5%
$0 24h

Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes6.5%
No93.5%
$0 24h

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes2.9%
No97.2%
$0 24h

Market Stats

Total Volume
$155.6K
24h Volume
$4.3K
Liquidity
$86.5K
Open Interest
$36.5K
End Date
1/1/2027
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