What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??

The market currently prices the primary outcome at 18%. This reflects the collective probability estimate from all Polymarket traders.

How much has been traded on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??

Total trading volume is $75.8M with $164.8K in the last 24 hours. Liquidity stands at $340.8K.

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Markets/Politics/Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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