Market Intelligence — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $79.0M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva climbed +9.0 points to 39% on $373.6K of 24-hour volume.

Biggest drop

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? fell -13.4 points to 5% on $3.4M of 24-hour volume.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

TheReturnOfDarthMaul holds 5.5M shares of YES on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" at 88¢ — about $4.8M at risk, paying $5.5M if it resolves that way.

ArmageddonRewardsBilly holds 1.3M shares of YES on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" at 88¢ — about $1.2M at risk, paying $1.3M if it resolves that way.

VelvetNova27 holds 1.1M shares of NO on "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" at 95¢ — about $999.2K at risk, paying $1.1M if it resolves that way.

TahitiBob holds 1.0M shares of NO on "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" at 95¢ — about $981.5K at risk, paying $1.0M if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Sep 20 — Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? (currently 7%, $2.5M traded)

Sep 22 — US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? (currently 5%, $950.3K traded)

Sep 19 — Guadalajara Open Akron, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar (currently 51%, $574.5K traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*