Market Intelligence — Saturday, September 19, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $113.5M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Paris FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace climbed +49.2 points to 97% on $653.3K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will Paris FC win on 2026-09-19?

Biggest drop

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? fell -5.0 points to 74% on $2.3M of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

6 markets with outcomes still in doubt moved at least 5 points today; markets that simply settled are excluded. The full list is on the movers page, and the screener filters by volume and anomaly score.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

0xa5ef39… holds 1.6M shares of NO on "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 27¢ — about $422.5K at risk, paying $1.6M if it resolves that way.

0xa5ef39… holds 727.5K shares of NO on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" at 56¢ — about $411.1K at risk, paying $727.5K if it resolves that way.

0xa5ef39… holds 678.8K shares of NO on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" at 45¢ — about $302.1K at risk, paying $678.8K if it resolves that way.

0x361b16… holds 393.9K shares of YES on "Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19?" at 77¢ — about $301.4K at risk, paying $393.9K if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Sep 20 — Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? (currently 5%, $2.6M traded)

Sep 19 — Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19? (currently 77%, $1.6M traded)

Sep 19 — Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs (currently 74%, $831.4K traded)

Sep 19 — LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs (currently 55%, $821.3K traded)

Sep 20 — Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? (currently 48%, $761.3K traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*