Market Intelligence — Sunday, September 20, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $105.7M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? climbed +5.0 points to 82% on $1.7M of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Biggest drop

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? fell -5.1 points to 16% on $475.2K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

0xa5ef39… holds 1.9M shares of NO on "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 19¢ — about $347.4K at risk, paying $1.9M if it resolves that way.

Jsram holds 497.5K shares of NO on "Vikings vs. Bears" at 66¢ — about $325.9K at risk, paying $497.5K if it resolves that way.

gopfan2 holds 300.0K shares of YES on "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 82¢ — about $244.5K at risk, paying $300.0K if it resolves that way.

dromedaryy holds 288.8K shares of YES on "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 82¢ — about $235.3K at risk, paying $288.8K if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Sep 20 — Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? (currently 16%, $4.5M traded)

Sep 20 — Spread: BAL (-8.5) (currently 50%, $1.0M traded)

Sep 20 — Vikings vs. Bears (currently 35%, $956.7K traded)

Sep 20 — Bengals vs. Texans (currently 42%, $937.1K traded)

Sep 20 — Steelers vs. Patriots (currently 33%, $825.3K traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*