Market Intelligence — Monday, September 21, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $137.1M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

No market with an open outcome moved 5 points or more in the last 24 hours. Quiet days are normal — most prediction markets only reprice when news arrives.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

DonKarabas holds 1.4M shares of YES on "Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 0¢ — about $2.1K at risk, paying $1.4M if it resolves that way.

0xa5ef39… holds 2.2M shares of NO on "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 0¢ — about $1.1K at risk, paying $2.2M if it resolves that way.

raybanman holds 1.1M shares of NO on "Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?" at 0¢ — about $538 at risk, paying $1.1M if it resolves that way.

MiltonFriedmanHongKong holds 652.4K shares of NO on "Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?" at 0¢ — about $326 at risk, paying $652.4K if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Nothing with an open outcome resolves in the next seven days.

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*