Market Intelligence — Thursday, September 24, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $71.8M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Fed Decision in October? climbed +14.0 points to 68% on $488.4K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Biggest drop

Japan vs. Uruguay fell -44.0 points to 8% on $314.8K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will Japan win on 2026-09-24?

4 markets with outcomes still in doubt moved at least 5 points today; markets that simply settled are excluded. The full list is on the movers page, and the screener filters by volume and anomaly score.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

StasPanda holds 74.5K shares of NO on "Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C" at 91¢ — about $67.4K at risk, paying $74.5K if it resolves that way.

WhattDoyoumean holds 68.3K shares of NO on "Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C" at 91¢ — about $61.8K at risk, paying $68.3K if it resolves that way.

SharkbetX-com holds 66.9K shares of NO on "Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C" at 91¢ — about $60.6K at risk, paying $66.9K if it resolves that way.

gvrgb326552g65 holds 60.0K shares of YES on "Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" at 62¢ — about $36.9K at risk, paying $60.0K if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Oct 1 — US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? (currently 8%, $4.3M traded)

Sep 30 — Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? (currently 96%, $2.7M traded)

Sep 24 — Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C (currently 10%, $921.3K traded)

Oct 1 — Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? (currently 12%, $878.3K traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*