Market Intelligence — Friday, September 25, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $105.2M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Türkiye vs. France - More Markets climbed +6.0 points to 52% on $316.3K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Türkiye vs. France: O/U 3.5

Biggest drop

Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell fell -38.0 points to 35% on $627.6K of 24-hour volume.

6 markets with outcomes still in doubt moved at least 5 points today; markets that simply settled are excluded. The full list is on the movers page, and the screener filters by volume and anomaly score.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

bbbbbbbbbbb6686 holds 367.7K shares of YES on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?" at 1¢ — about $2.4K at risk, paying $367.7K if it resolves that way.

0xCdbc69Eb662396d5a1877B7fE5063c2Cb898F38B-1758086112268 holds 341.4K shares of YES on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?" at 1¢ — about $2.2K at risk, paying $341.4K if it resolves that way.

goshkam holds 3.5M shares of NO on "Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves" at 0¢ — about $1.8K at risk, paying $3.5M if it resolves that way.

SmartPredictOrNot holds 3.1M shares of NO on "Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers" at 0¢ — about $1.6K at risk, paying $3.1M if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Oct 1 — US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? (currently 13%, $4.5M traded)

Sep 30 — Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? (currently 95%, $2.8M traded)

Oct 1 — Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? (currently 8%, $967.7K traded)

Oct 1 — Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? (currently 25%, $952.4K traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*