Market Intelligence — Saturday, September 26, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $110.0M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

England vs. Spain climbed +6.0 points to 49% on $1.6M of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?

Biggest drop

San Diego State vs. Toledo fell -17.5 points to 25% on $673.2K of 24-hour volume.

4 markets with outcomes still in doubt moved at least 5 points today; markets that simply settled are excluded. The full list is on the movers page, and the screener filters by volume and anomaly score.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

SmartPredictOrNot holds 1.8M shares of YES on "Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-09-26?" at 41¢ — about $712.2K at risk, paying $1.8M if it resolves that way.

0x361b16… holds 1.1M shares of YES on "Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?" at 49¢ — about $511.9K at risk, paying $1.1M if it resolves that way.

8934394839 holds 575.1K shares of NO on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at 84¢ — about $480.2K at risk, paying $575.1K if it resolves that way.

nojnn holds 553.4K shares of NO on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at 84¢ — about $462.1K at risk, paying $553.4K if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Oct 1 — US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? (currently 5%, $4.8M traded)

Sep 30 — Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? (currently 96%, $2.8M traded)

Sep 26 — Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? (currently 49%, $1.7M traded)

Sep 30 — US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? (currently 92%, $1.3M traded)

Oct 1 — Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? (currently 5%, $1.0M traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

---

*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*