Market Intelligence — Monday, October 5, 2026
Today's market overview
Active prediction markets traded $259.2M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.
What moved
Biggest gain
Villena: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Luca Nardi climbed +33.5 points to 92% on $429.4K of 24-hour volume.
Biggest drop
Braga: Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moeller fell -24.5 points to 34% on $621.4K of 24-hour volume.
4 markets with outcomes still in doubt moved at least 5 points today; markets that simply settled are excluded. The full list is on the movers page, and the screener filters by volume and anomaly score.
Where the biggest money sits
Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.
No position cleared our reporting threshold in the latest holder snapshot.
Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.
Resolving in the next seven days
The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.
Where to look next
Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.
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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*