Market Intelligence — Sunday, October 11, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $254.1M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima climbed +12.0 points to 54% on $556.6K of 24-hour volume.

Biggest drop

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys fell -15.0 points to 71% on $394.0K of 24-hour volume.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

No position cleared our reporting threshold in the latest holder snapshot.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Oct 16 — US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? (currently 5%, $2.8M traded)

Oct 13 — US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? (currently 96%, $1.3M traded)

Oct 16 — US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? (currently 93%, $981.3K traded)

Oct 11 — Eagles vs. Jaguars (currently 24%, $904.7K traded)

Oct 11 — Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs (currently 43%, $815.9K traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*