Market Intelligence — Friday, October 23, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $136.0M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

NATO x Russia military clash by...? climbed +6.5 points to 16% on $460.1K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Biggest drop

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A fell -18.0 points to 45% on $497.6K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner

3 markets with outcomes still in doubt moved at least 5 points today; markets that simply settled are excluded. The full list is on the movers page, and the screener filters by volume and anomaly score.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

No position cleared our reporting threshold in the latest holder snapshot.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Oct 29 — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? (currently 94%, $16.8M traded)

Oct 29 — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? (currently 7%, $12.9M traded)

Oct 28 — Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? (currently 28%, $10.5M traded)

Oct 27 — Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (currently 76%, $6.8M traded)

Oct 27 — Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (currently 6%, $5.4M traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*