Market Intelligence — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $117.3M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Norway vs. Portugal climbed +5.0 points to 43% on $507.2K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will Norway win on 2026-09-27?

Biggest drop

Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C fell -35.0 points to 7% on $1.5M of 24-hour volume.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

raybanman holds 575.0K shares of NO on "Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)" at 55¢ — about $316.3K at risk, paying $575.0K if it resolves that way.

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 holds 565.7K shares of NO on "Spread: Lions (-6.5)" at 48¢ — about $268.7K at risk, paying $565.7K if it resolves that way.

Diabolical-Prize holds 561.7K shares of YES on "Patriots vs. Jaguars" at 40¢ — about $221.9K at risk, paying $561.7K if it resolves that way.

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 holds 1.0M shares of NO on "Chiefs vs. Dolphins" at 17¢ — about $167.2K at risk, paying $1.0M if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Oct 5 — Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? (currently 42%, $12.6M traded)

Oct 5 — Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? (currently 58%, $12.2M traded)

Oct 1 — US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? (currently 4%, $5.3M traded)

Sep 30 — US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? (currently 97%, $2.1M traded)

Sep 29 — Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C (currently 7%, $1.7M traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*