Market Intelligence — Saturday, October 24, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $128.4M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC - More Markets climbed +17.0 points to 57% on $776.7K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5

Biggest drop

Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC fell -19.0 points to 42% on $2.6M of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?

4 markets with outcomes still in doubt moved at least 5 points today; markets that simply settled are excluded. The full list is on the movers page, and the screener filters by volume and anomaly score.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

No position cleared our reporting threshold in the latest holder snapshot.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Oct 29 — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? (currently 94%, $18.1M traded)

Oct 29 — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? (currently 7%, $14.1M traded)

Oct 28 — Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? (currently 27%, $10.7M traded)

Oct 27 — Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (currently 70%, $7.1M traded)

Oct 27 — Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (currently 18%, $5.8M traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

---

*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*