Market Intelligence — Friday, September 11, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $106.6M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest gain

Fed Decision in September? climbed +7.0 points to 60% on $1.6M of 24-hour volume. The market asks: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Biggest drop

Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari fell -31.3 points to 56% on $1.6M of 24-hour volume.

4 markets with outcomes still in doubt moved at least 5 points today; markets that simply settled are excluded. The full list is on the movers page, and the screener filters by volume and anomaly score.

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

0xa5ef39… holds 9.9M shares of NO on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" at 60¢ — about $5.9M at risk, paying $9.9M if it resolves that way.

0xa5ef39… holds 9.9M shares of NO on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" at 41¢ — about $4.0M at risk, paying $9.9M if it resolves that way.

TheReturnOfDarthMaul holds 2.9M shares of YES on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" at 60¢ — about $1.7M at risk, paying $2.9M if it resolves that way.

ArmageddonRewardsBilly holds 1.4M shares of YES on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" at 60¢ — about $815.1K at risk, paying $1.4M if it resolves that way.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Sep 16 — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? (currently 41%, $28.2M traded)

Sep 16 — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? (currently 60%, $22.4M traded)

Sep 14 — Barranquilla: Julieta Pareja vs Lucrezia Stefanini (currently 50%, $2.0M traded)

Sep 15 — Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari (currently 56%, $1.6M traded)

Sep 13 — Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? (currently 51%, $1.3M traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

---

*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*