Market Intelligence — Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Today's market overview

Active prediction markets traded $200.7M in the last 24 hours. Here is what moved, where the largest positions sit, and what resolves next.

What moved

Biggest drop

France declares state of emergency by...? fell -6.0 points to 9% on $886.6K of 24-hour volume. The market asks: France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

Where the biggest money sits

Positions below are valued at the current price. Amounts are share counts; each winning share redeems for $1, so "at risk" is shares times price. Parked capital priced at 95¢ or higher and identical-size positions spread across every outcome of one event are excluded, because those are market-making rather than directional bets.

No position cleared our reporting threshold in the latest holder snapshot.

Full rankings on the biggest bets page, with wallet history in the whale tracker and new positions in the free alerts feed.

Resolving in the next seven days

Oct 29 — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? (currently 93%, $24.8M traded)

Oct 29 — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? (currently 8%, $17.7M traded)

Oct 28 — Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? (currently 27%, $14.6M traded)

Oct 31 — US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? (currently 94%, $7.0M traded)

Nov 1 — US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? (currently 4%, $6.3M traded)

The full 31-day view is on the resolution calendar.

Where to look next

Live trackers for the questions that draw the most attention: Fed decision odds for cut, hold or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, and 2026 midterm odds for control of Congress. Perpetual futures data, including funding rates, is on the Perps screener.

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*Generated from PolymarketFlow's ingested Polymarket data. Prices are market prices shown for information only, not advice. Trading availability depends on your jurisdiction.*